After a thesis at CIRED, Béatrice joined i3-CSI in 2019. "I specialise in the sociology of science and technology. I am interested in the working methods of IPCC Group 3 researchers in charge of climate change mitigation and greenhouse gas reduction issues. More specifically, I'm studying the socio-economic forecasting of climate change and the way in which scenarios and forecasting tools are constructed to evaluate the various options for action on climate change", explains the young researcher.

"These scientists are seeking to assess the interactions and interdependencies between technological, economic and human systems and environmental systems, i.e. the climate, soils, forests, etc. Models originally created in the environmental sciences, but also in engineering and economics, have been adapted to the needs of researchers and the IPCC. Models originally created in the environmental sciences, but also in engineering and economics, have been adapted to the needs of researchers and the IPCC. A real translation of knowledge has been achieved", she continues.

These models and scenarios are based on data as much as they produce it. The work of researchers such as Jérôme Denis has shown that collecting, classifying and linking data is a political task. In the case of climate change, this structures the range of possible futures that are envisaged through scenarios and models. Béatrice Cointe looked at the history of global foresight models to see how representations of technological choices and the questioning of economic growth have been discussed since the 1970s.

The history of the 1.5°C global warming target agreed at COP 21 provides a good illustration of the sometimes difficult link between climate science and climate policy. Hélène Guillemot and Béatrice Cointe have shown that this objective, which appears to be a scientific one, is above all a diplomatic one. This objective was pushed by a coalition of island countries, countries vulnerable to climate change and international philanthropic organisations that were investing in the climate. Scientific research developed a posteriori on this objective once it had been politically sanctioned. "The IPCC report on the 1.5 degree target, despite the initial reluctance of many scientists, had a structuring role in legitimising the objective and also in encouraging the production of research on these issues, both in terms of impacts and policies. This objective also illustrates a form of co-dependence between climate science and climate policy. Although considered unattainable because it came too late, the 1.5°C target seems necessary to maintain the momentum around these climate issues," explains Béatrice.

"Scientists felt obliged to produce knowledge to justify the 1.5°C objective, and politicians still need to have scientific output to legitimise their decisions. The models add hypotheses such as negative emissions to absorb greenhouse gas emissions in industrial quantities, even though these technologies are not currently available on a large scale. Debates are taking place about whether or not to maintain this objective, which already seems lost, while other scientists have a more pragmatic approach and see it as a safeguard", she sums up.

Beatrice Cointe and Antonin Pottier looked at: "The absence of a degrowth scenario in the IPCC databases". The two researchers asked themselves this question by looking at the 5th IPCC report. Antonin Pottier examined the question from the point of view of modelling techniques and Béatrice worked on research structures. The researchers concluded that the absence of degrowth is not due to a technical impossibility, but rather to the fact that the issue of degrowth has not been taken into account. The IPCC scenarios take economic growth for granted, even though this is now beginning to change. Degrowth scenarios are not easy to construct: is it simply a drop in GDP or do they involve other parameters?

"My work, carried out from a social science perspective with a view to understanding processes, can be useful both to people interested in how the IPCC works and to those working on scenarios, by providing a reflective perspective that allows things to be debated. This can bring transparency to the IPCC's work", she concludes.

 

For more information about Béatrice Cointe:

A CSI seminar:

• Béatrice Cointe organise with Kewan Mertens and Alexandre Violle un séminaire consacré aux expertises économiques et actions environnementales. This seminar brings together researchers who are interested in understanding how economic knowledge is produced, mobilized and contested when it comes to environmental action.
• Next seminar Friday, March 1, 2024, 11am-1pm avec Magdalena Kuchler, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Sweden and Bård Lahn  (TIK), Université d’Oslo, and (CICERO) , Norway about "Underground futures"

Work and career of Béatrice :

• The debates surrounding technological change in global models
• The practical challenges of building databases to collect the mitigation scenarios assessed by the IPCC.
• The career of Béatrice